Peak Oil

The Peak Oil Hypothesis
- You have to find oil first
- Earth is not making any more
- Geologists understand oil
- Total production = area under curve
- ALL oil fields start at zero, peak, then decline
- Decline starts after about half the oil is produced
- Historical peak of discovery was 1950-1975
- Recent discovery is about 1/3 of consumption
The Evidence So Far - Watch these items
- Annual "conventional oil" production
- Total exportable oil
- U.S. crude oil imports
- U.S. oil inventories
Who is Talking About This?
- Initially - retired oil geologists
Why the Fuss Now?
- Evidence is showing production plateau
- Nobody has a "Plan B"
How Do I Keep Up With This?
- You'll have to work at it:
  - Read ASPO
  - Read The Oil Drum
  - Read the Energy Bulletin
The Future
- What is oil used for?
- 45% - Gasoline
- 21% - Fuel oil
- 9% - Jet fuel
- 4% - Liquefied gases
- 4% - Still gas
- 4% - Coke
- 8% - Asphalt, feedstock, lubricants, other...
An Oil Exercise