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Imaginary Weapons: A Journey Through the Pentagon's Scientific Underworld

Good science fiction must rest upon plausible science. Sharon Weinberger's Imaginary Weapons: A Journey Through the Pentagon's Scientific Underworld tells a real-life story that relied on implau-sible science. The book is a shocking reminder of how, in a time of hyper-inflated defense budgets, sanity can be tossed aside and real money can be squandered beyond belief in the false name of "scientific promise."

Weinberger's story is about the government's pursuit of an allegedly new kind of powerful weapon envisaged by scientist Carl Collins, who hyped the results of a bad 1998 experiment and, over the course of several years, doggedly sold his dream to people in the defense community for untold money. It was, at best, a case of selling "snake oil." The hafnium bomb project involved gullible weapons enthusiasts who had more spending authority than good sense. Steve Younger, a senior weapons specialist in the US Department of Defense, typified this characteristic. Despite unsuccessful attempts by numerous federal agencies to replicate the original bad experiment, which involved a dental x-ray machine, word of the potential to build a Hf explosive spread quickly throughout the defense community. The subject matter became classified, which, unhappily, made it more difficult for the project to be examined by the scientific community. Classification can protect vital information from misuse, but—and here's the lesson—it can also protect bad ideas (such as Star Wars, the space-based missile defense system) from the scrutiny of objective evaluation.

In a nutshell, the Hf proponents urged federal officials in the Pentagon and the US Department of Energy to produce gram quantities of the isotope ¹⁸²Hf and excite it into a high-spin isomer ¹⁷⁸Hf^m2, which has a relatively long half-life of about 30 years (see PHYSICS TODAY, May 2004, page 21). The advocates of the project then proposed to have x rays trigger rapid de-excitation of the isomer, thus causing a massive cascade of gamma rays as the isomer relaxes to the ground state. Little analysis is required to show that production of the needed quantities of the Hf isomer would be horrendously expensive. And a trigger mechanism such as an x-ray laser was only a wispy dream.

Despite the physical facts, the dream of producing a Hf explosive prevailed and was repeatedly sold to inept decision makers. Even the once-heralded Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency seemed to fall prey to the idea. Peter Zimmerman, then chief scientist of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and a born skeptic but capable scientist, asked the famed JASON group of elite scientists to evaluate the Hf proposals. The group dismissed the idea as not remotely feasible, but that still didn't stop the proponents. Only several years later did a series of experiments and tests finally discredit the original report of success.

So why did it take so long and millions of dollars to dispel the rumor? Through her persistent tracking of the events and people, Weinberger shows us the veracity behind Mark Twain's statement that a lie can make it halfway around the world before the truth can even get its shoes on. Her highly readable account underscores the wisdom that "a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing." Her important story reminds us that the government must support and use highly credible analysis groups, such as the National Academies; the congressional Office of Technology Assessment, which was dismantled in 1995 during the Republican Revolution led by Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the US House of Representatives; and professional groups, such as the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Physical Society. Needless to say, snake oil finely dressed up is always going to be available for sale.

For me, the hero in Imaginary Weapons is Zimmerman, who quietly used his scientific training and experience in Washington to nudge the fable of a Hf bomb into a deservedly deep hole. Sadly, his nudge took several years to complete.